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Security Names 50 Hotspot Constituencies To Watch In 2024 As 2026 Draws Closer!

The year 2024 is here. It comes at a time when several politicians have spent 2023 with fierce battles back in their constituencies. Our Inspectors in intelligence have informed us that already, security has kick started a process to study a number of constituencies as they try to understand how to deal with possible escalations as warring camps for different political actors continue to tear themselves up. And because 2024 has been classified as a year of intense political activism, intelligence is interested in understanding how to deal with threats that may arise from such contests in selected areas. There are so far 50 constituencies that have been marked as hotspots. In this expose, we reveal partial details of what is at stake and those involved.

Maria Gorreti Kitutu Vs Sarah Kayagi 

Officially, Kitutu is the woman MP for Manafwa district. However, intelligence suggests that she is keeping Namisindwa woman MP Sarah Kayagi Netelesire on sleeping pills because she is rumored to be heading to Namisindwa. The now celebrated ‘Mabaati Queen’, Kitutu is the current minister for Karamoja affairs. The two are said to be at loggerheads that security thinks their rivalry is likely to intensify in this new year 2024. Inspectors said Kitutu also thinks Kayagi is allegedly behind all the negative publicity she is currently facing arising from her misdeeds in the ministry she heads. But Kayagi is said to have already prepared a serious land mine for the embattled minister to step on should she change course. None the less, Dr. Kitutu is not deterred and is ready to send her opponent packing.

Judith Nabakooba Vs Joyce Baagala

The lands minister Nabakooba is said to be on serious tenterhooks as she tries to make in roads into her former woman MP seat for Mityana. Bagala, an NUP supporter is the reason Nabakooba is currently out of parliament officially. She is simply an ex-officio courtesy of Gen. Museveni. Inspectors said Museveni still needs her around having helped him get more information about the operations of former IGP (but now reformed) Kale Kaihura. However, in Mityana, there is even a suggestion that if she can’t face Baagala for the same seat, Museveni should consider creating a constituency for her called Namutamba county. But if this isn’t done, Inspectors said the district is highly expected to experience a lot of pressure between her (NRM) and NUP.

Peter Ogwang Vs Dan Mulalu

The two are fighting for Ngariam county in Katakwi. Ogwang is the state minister for sports while Mulalu works in president’s office. The duo are equally loaded according to Inspectors and each has his own backing in the political circles. Ogwang is said to be allied to speaker Anita Among and Mike Mukula while Mulalu is said to be enjoying the backing of Vice President Jessica Alupo. Both Alupo and Among were close buddies but as time went by, they are said to have fallen out. 

Peter Mashate Vs Nandala Mafabi

These are fighting for Budadiri West constituency. We’re told Mafabi is under intense pressure that he’s even considering running away and instead take on president Museveni as a presidential candidate on FDC ticket.

Nandala is a Muwalasi while Mashate is a Muyobo. These are the two predominant ethnicities in this constituency. We’re told the Bayobo are bitter with Bawalasi that they have dominated the politics of Budadiri West since 1996 to date and yet, there was an understanding that the two groups share this MP seat interchangeably. It started with Prof. Dan Nabudere (Muyobo) coming as CA delegate and quit for David Giruli (Muwalasi) who served until 2001 when Nandala (Muwalasi) came up. Since then, Nandala has been area MP and Giruli now is the LC 5. 

Milly Babalanda Vs Manjeri 

Initially, the idea was that Rt. Hon. Rebecca Kadaga would quit Kamuli woman MP seat and go for Kamuli municipality. Inspectors cited the fact that Mama Kadaga wanted a smaller constituency given her advanced age. By sticking to Kamuli, the district was huge and meant that she had to do a lot of movements around coupled with the pressure that comes with protecting the votes. So, she reportedly wanted to go for the smaller municipality. Milly, the presidency minister was to takeover the district since she also hails from there. Kadaga would also quit her NRM second national vice chairperson seat and settle for the smaller seat of Elderly representing Eastern as Jessica Alupo, the Vice President takes over as NRM second national vice chairperson. However, of recent, Milly’s name has been heard around Jinja city suggesting that she’s keeping her eye on the seat. She now faces NUP’s gal Manjeri who is also said to be a hard nut to crack. In fact, 2024 has been said to be the determining year for Milly to boldly come out and take on NUP which is said to be hyper active in Jinja city. Milly Babalanda is however, said to enjoy a good following also in the City.

Kasule Lumumba Vs Solomon Silwanyi

The former NRM SG is currently the minister for general duties in OPM. Although PM Nabbanja says Lumumba has no defined position in this office, the former powerful yellow SG is none the less a full cabinet minister.

Inspectors said that Lumumba is under pressure to return to the political trenches but what is not clear is where? Some say she wants her former Bugiri seat although others in Busoga suggest she wants Bukooli central currently under NRM’s Silwanyi since she can’t take on Jeema’s Asuman Basalirwa. And to make matters worse, those against her including ministers (who suffered during her tenure at NRM secretariat) are said to be mobilizing resources to put on her head should she show herself up for NRM primaries. However, Lumumba can’t be swept under the carpet politically as her allies suggest her mobilization prowess was showcased during the successful wedding for Kyabazinga recently.

Erias Lukwago Vs Hajat Hadija Namyalo

All is not well at Katonga-based FDC faction led by Omuloodi Erias Lukwago and Kizza Besigye. Inspectors said this faction got credible clues that president Museveni is preparing his aide at Kyambogo Hajat Hadija Namyalo to run for Lord Mayorship in 2026. Namyalo according to Inspectors, is giving Lukwago and his group running stomach every time she raids the city ghettos for mobilization work. This is why, Inspectors said Katonga is steadily watching her moves because all indications are that she is up for a political move around Kampala. Both are Muslims although Namyalo jiggles both Kibuli and Old Kampala factions as Lukwago mostly goes to Kibuli. 

Betty Amongi Vs Dr. Jane Aceng

These two are said to the the worst rivals for now. Amongi currently represents Oyam South while Aceng is Lira City woman MP. However, Amongi has decided to see off Aceng come 2026 and already, the two ladies are intensely fighting each other.

Inspectors said Aceng’s backers want her to become either VP or next Prime Minister while Amongi backers also think she can occupy one of the offices in the speakership. This is how hot this battle is.

Sarah Opendi vs Phoebe Otaala

Tororo woman MP is the issue here. Opendi is currently the MP although Otaala is also eyeing the same seat. She recently received a mega boost when Museveni visited the district and he called her out for a one on one. This excited many. Opendi also faces rivalry from NRM EC boss Tanga Odoi who unfortunately, cannot become a woman MP! On the other hand, because Jacob Oboth’s name was forwarded by Museveni to replace the late Jacob Oulanyah, this mere suggestion caused the ‘Mabaati King’ further trouble. We’re told those scheming for speakership in 2026 are willing to use Opendi to politically extinguish Oboth so that he doesn’t feature in the next parliament list and or speakership list. This therefore, puts Opendi in another axis of direct confrontation with Oboth supporting Otaala as woman MP! Shockingly though, Oboth and Phoebe’s hubby Dr. Emmanuel Otaala are also serious rivals especially as far as cabinet positions are concerned. Very tricky indeed!

Amelia Kyambadde Vs Hillary Kiyaga

The former all powerful PPS and minister is said to be making intense inroads to recapture her former Mawokota north MP seat. Incidentally, she faces her former aide and artist Hillary Kiyaga alias Dr. Hilderman who helped her kick out Peter Mutuluuza in 2011. Kiyaga however, turned against Amelia in 2021 and left her in the bushes of Mpigi. Now, she’s returning and already, the political tempo here is high. None the less, as she makes a decision to return, Inspectors said Amelia’s detractors from within the system are also not seated wanting her to keep off politics. We’re told some good hundreds of millions were poured against Amelia on the eve of elections and this is how she lost to NUP’s Kiyaga. 

Dr. Sarah Wasagali Kanaabi Vs Rita Namuwenge

Mbale City woman MP seat is another area security is monitoring. Here, we have Dr. Sarah Wasagali Kanaabi, the Chairperson Board-Electricity Regulatory Authority versus OWC’s Ritah Namuwenge. But remember, even Lydia Wanyoto, the NRM women’s league chairperson is also trying her best to capture the same seat.

Wasagali is a Moslem while her other opponents are not and yet Mbale City is predominantly Moslem. She’s also friends with Mufti Mubajje, an attribute that makes her a darling among the Muslim folks. Wasagali is also a lecturer and has done a lot for her area even before coming to parliament. Just recently, Mbale hospital was facing power cuts and now all this is history after she finally secured a direct line for the hospital. This now makes power supply to the health facility assured and it has brought smiles to the people in the area and medical staff. The incumbent MP Connie Ggwaliwango is said to be retiring although she backs Namuwenge. Her late hubby Ggwaliwango was a darling among Muslims and they voted for his wife despite her being a Christian. And because Connie isn’t returning, this leaves the Moslem vote a free area to tap into by Wasagali according to intelligence.

Ivan Masaba Vs Sezi Wambedde

These are in Mbale division-North. Masaba is NUP and Sezi is NRM. We’re told because of this, the constituency is marked as a hotspot because NUP chief whip Nambetshe is increasing his political sphere of influence in Bugisu subregion.

Mwesigwa Rukutana Vs Naome Kabasharira

What happened in NRM primaries of 2020 is still vivid among the leaders of Rushenyi county. This is where Mwesigwa Rukutana and his rival Kabasharira were tearing up each other for the NRM flag. Finally, Kabasharira carried the day. It’s reported that Mwesigwa is considering are come back and the Kabasharira camp is equally prepared to defend what belongs to them.

Norbert Mao Vs Mapenduzi

Now that he’s being prepared for bigger things in government, Norbert Mao must have a constituency. And this constituency is currently being represented by Mapenduzi. 

Nandutu Vs Nambetshe

Not that Nambetshe wants to become woman MP Bududa. But he is said to be the man behind the victory Agnes Nandutu got against NRM’s Justine Khainza in 2021. We’re told Nambetshe is bitter that even when he backed her, the now troubled state minister for Karamoja isolated him when she came to parliament. Instead, whenever he wanted something from OPM, Nambetshe would approach Kitutu or anyone else and not his political pal Agnes. We’re now told that Nambetshe wants to expand his sphere of influence to cover Bududa, Manafwa, Mbale, Namisindwa and Sironko so that he can become the next LoP,  this is how Agnes will have to contend with her former backer!

Rt. Hon. Rebecca Kadaga Vs Rt. Hon. Anita Among

Recently, rumors did rounds that Among wanted to stand for Buyende woman MP where she’s married. Some in her camp had even started referring to her as Mama Busoga, a title solely bestowed upon Kadaga. Immediately, the gloves went off in Kadaga’s camp and Among had to come out and clearly denied such plans. She said she will stand in her Bukedea district. Inspectors however, said her decision to ‘eat’ Christmas from Buyende resurrected this hitherto fading suspicion and already, the Kadaga camp is allegedly probing her visit. Kadaga seems to be interested in speakership again should her boss Museveni clears her alleged aspirations!

Watch this space for more details.

FIELD INSPECTORS

The author FIELD INSPECTORS

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